What is the best formula for calculating the risk of a threat ?

Well it all depends on the Situation ?

If it’s Natural:
Storm, Blizzard, Cyclone/Hurricane 🌀, Tornado/Twister 🌪,
Volcano 🌋 , Earthquake, Tsunami 🌊, Flood,
Bushfire 🔥 …
There will be Natural warnings
By the local Wildlife & even Pets..

As well as Media Reports & Alerts, 🚨 🔊
Evaction Alerts..

If its Manmade/Industrial :
War/Invasion, Civil Unrest/Uprising
Financial Collapse

Pandemic/Viral Outbreak

Or An Industrial Accident causing Massive Environmental damage…

Media Alert, News Broadcasts,
Sudden Massive Movement of Either Military 🪖 & Law enforcement personnel …
Massive Gatherings Of People who will form up into MOBS…

But if its a Power 🔋 Outages….

You won’t hear anything….
Unless you’ve got a Battery 🔋 powered back up..
Or a Generator

You might have to come up with several different Risk Calculations…

For Natural Risk Calculations?
Look through the Local History of your Area
Both Written & Geological…

For Manmade/Industrial Risk Calculations…?

Again look through recent History..
But also look at the Political History too
For how people reacted…???